Aurora live prediction and forecast

Our own prediction symbol shows the possibility for aurora sightings. The values are based on scientific measurements, weather and lighting conditions. E.g if it is dark, a clear sky and good solar activity it will calculate higher possibilities for an aurora sighting. Values are none, low, good or high.

Aurora live Prediction

Our goal is to make all the difficult values and measurements easy to understand. After many years, we have learned there are a few things that are more important in the hunt for the Northern Lights. The most important thing is a cloudless sky. All measurements are only a prediction, and give no northern lights guarantee. (figures have a hoverable question mark with explanation)

Map updates every minute. The green areas (Aurora Oval) mark the regions in which you have a good chance of observing the northern lights in the next half hour. Cameras that are within the dark area can show the polar lights if other conditions are good.

Toggle between different maps and overlays in top corner on the map.

Current Kp-Index, Nowcast & Trend

We have combined alerts from NOAA and GFZ in the same speedometer. The outer bar shows the values from NOAA and the inner bar gives you the GFZ values.
  • KP-INDEX VALUES:
  • 0 -> 3 = Quiet
  • 4 = Active
  • 5 = Minor Storm (G1)
  • 6 = Moderate Storm (G2)
  • 7 = Strong Storm (G3)
  • 8 = Severe Storm (G4)
  • 9 = Extreme Storm (G5)
Nowcast is a prediction of how the kp index will develop in the next few hours.
Trend shows you in a simple way how the next 3 days Kp-Index develops

3-Day Forecast

3-Day forecast is of course nothing more than a prediction. Such data should in no way form the basis for whether you should hunt for the Northern Lights or not. This can give an indication and sometimes the data is correct.
Sometimes the trend graph above can be easier to use as it shows with an simple explanation how the aurora develops in the next days

Solar activity

The speed, bz and hemispheric power are the absolutely most important data when you are «hunting» the Northern Lights. High speed and BZ at minus, along with high hemispheric power and a clear sky, is a sure northern lights sign.
Bz needs to drop – for aurora to appear. Speed from 250 and up can give nice movements in the sky

Hemispheric Power

The hemispheric power shows total energy measured in GigaWatts. The HP value is a underrated value. Many photographers hold this as one of the most important values in the hunt for aurora. A high HP = get ready to see the aurora.
Hemispheric Power
  • 0 -> 20 = Weak
  • 20 -> 50 = Good
  • 50 -> 100 = Strong
  • 100 -> = Geomagnetic Storm

    • Aurora Oval

    The aurora oval can be understood as a huge ring above the earth’s geomagnetic North Pole. Too keep this simple the Ovation-Prime model show where the aurora will be visible. The Ovation model is actually the closest science has come to predict aurora in an accurate way.

    Solar Ultraviolet Images (SUVI)

    SUVI observations of solar flares and solar eruptions can provide early warning of possible impacts to Earth’s space environment and enable better forecasting of potentially disruptive events on the ground. (NOAA/NASA)

    Moonphase

    The lunar phase or Moon phase is the shape of the directly sunlit portion of the Moon as viewed from Earth.
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